The Shahs of Nepal have had one thing in common with the Maoists who eventually caused dynastic rule to end in the landlocked mountain kingdom. Both, in many senses, drew sustenance from India. The entire Nepalese political class, at a time when India was fighting for Independence, was educated in universities in Banaras, Allahabad and Kolkata. In post-Independence India and post-Rana Nepal, New Delhi played a crucial role in permanently clipping the Ranas’ wings. The first blow to the Ranas was when India played host to King Tribhuvan, who had been forced to flee Kathmandu by them.

It was Jawaharlal Nehru who had eventually sent the King back, hoping democracy would flourish in Nepal. Around the same time, a new generation of Nepalese - brash and optimistic - had made their way to Indian universities, mainly Jawaharlal Nehru University. There, they took to Marxism and forged links with Indian communists just as the educated Nepalese youth of pre-Independence era had openly joined the Indian freedom struggle. BP Koirala - who went on to become the first non-Rana Prime Minister of Nepal after King Tribhuvan’s return from exile - stood tallest among them.

King Tribhuvan’s successor, son Mahendra, for some reason, was very suspicious of India. I visited Nepal following a trip to that country by a colleague from The Statesman whose reportage had incurred King Mahendra’s wrath and led to a ban on newspaper in that country for six months. The Indian Ambassador at the time was Shriman Narayan, a former All India Congress Committee general-secretary and a well-known Gandhian. I was to learn from his successor, Raj Bahadur, a former Union minister, that Narayan was so awed by King Mahindra’s vision of himself as an incarnation of Lord Vishnu that he would prostrate himself to the King every time he called on him. This was around the time the King had ordered the closure of the Indian Military Mission in Nepal. The mission had been around since the days of the British with its principal brief being distribution of pensions to the large number of Nepalese nationals who had served (an continue to) in the Indian Army. But the mission did keep it eyes and ears open as King Mahendra had opened a channel of communication with China around the same time. I might mention here that the articles that had resulted in a ban on The Statesman, had referred to close links between the royal palace and smugglers. Nepal, as I was also to report later, was the point from where Thai-made textile, stainless steel and assorted finished and unfinished products would find their way to India.

King Mahendra’s son and successor Birendra did try to make amends after he ascended the throne but by that time, it was too late. The Nepalese Maoists had, in the meantime, struck deep roots and were busy spreading their network in the far-flung mountain ranges - attracting in droves hundreds of unemployed Nepalese youth, robbing the rich and the middle classes and sharing some of the loot with the poor. The royal palace lost much of its allure following the massacre of King Birendra and his family. His brother Gyanendra succeeded as monarch amid much controversy. But King Gyanendra had a very short stint at the palace what with the Maoists, who had become very active the preceding three years, refusing to let him gain a solid foothold. The Maoists urged an end to monarchy.

They wanted Nepal to be a republic and a republic it became - albeit a chaotic one. The problem with post-monarchy Nepal is, like it or not, that the Maoists have spent the past three years trying to get rid of all other political parties. Of course, they emerged as the single largest party following an election to the country’s proposed Constituent Assembly. And, the Maoists did enjoy power for some months thereafter. Prachanda, a JNU alumnus, as the country’s new prime minister, made three visits to Beijing and as a token of his appreciation for Chinese communism, permitted the Chinese to build a road through Tibet right up to the border with India. But assorted coalitions that took over after Prachanda’s exit as the Prime Minister proved unstable. Also, they were no match for the aggressive Maoist leader.

Nepal’s instability has been accentuated by its elected representatives’ failure to draft a republican constitution. Deadlines have been set and remained unmet. The latest, which saw a three-month extension granted to the House, was agreed upon by political parties last week but according to Nepalese observers, only a miracle can make them agree on an acceptable draft. The Nepali Congress, the oldest of the country’s political parties, is very suspicious of the Maoists. In fact, they had stiffly opposed the former rebels when they wanted their armed activists to be absorbed into the Nepalese Army right after the poll. The Nepali Congress now wants the Maoists People’s Liberation Army, Nepal to be disbanded. From the current Prime Minister, Jhalanath Khanal, down, most Nepalese politicians concede that the Constituent Assembly would not be able to deliver a Constitution even after the extension of the latest deadline which expired on May 28.

As per the arrangement arrived at by political parties earlier, the term of the House may have to be extended by another year, assuming that the Constitution is framed, debated and approved over the next three months.
Nepalese observers see the biggest threat to the peace process, linked directly to the framing of the Constitution, coming from the non-implementation of several provisions of the Comprehensive Peace Accord of 2006. The Maoists are being squarely blamed for this by the other signatories to the accord, Nepali Congress among them. The Nepali Congress has put forth a fresh set of demands that call on the Maoists to dispose of arms owned by it, disband their armed unit, return properties that the former insurgents had captured during the years of conflict and transform the Young Communist League into a civilian outfit. The demands notwithstanding, the Nepali Congress has amply demonstrated that it has neither the will nor the capacity to confront the Maoists beyond a point despite the former rebels having violated the peace accord in letter and spirit. The Maoists want to be part of the democratic process only on their own terms. They have, in fact, asked the cadres to be ready for another “People’s War”. It’s true that Prachanda plays this card at critical moments.

Forty-eight hours before the latest extension was granted to Nepal’s Constitution-makers, Prachanda said that Maoist-owned arms could not be bartered away. In a recent judgment, the Supreme Court of Nepal has observed that the term of the House can be extended by six months beyond the first two years of its convention in case a State of Emergency is declared. This, according to Nepalese political observers, will have a direct bearing on the course and fate of the Constituent Assembly. Clearly, its moral and Constitutional status will come under greater scrutiny over the next three months and the Maoists will continue to act tougher. The Nepali Congress could have proved an effective counter to the former rebels had it not been so wobbly. But it chooses to remain that way and this, of course, suits the Maoists very well.�